The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

As of early March 2025, investors—and consumers—have once again begun to feel skittish about the possibility of an impending ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

An ominous measure that the Federal Reserve considers a near surefire recession signal again has reared its head in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in ...

Analysts and investors began to brace for a souring economic environment as the 10-year Treasury yield fell below that of a 3 ...

Last week was a big week for markets, as the trade war that everyone has been warning about has finally arrived. Despite what some of our most epic posters might tell you, the trade war is not off ...